APPs are Being Calculated

I know this blog was just barely starting to get some traction before I went all emo after a breakup with my girlfriend of 5 years. But really, you don't give a damn about that, and I don't blame you. We're back for 2008 with more dedication and, more importantly, a better understanding of what is needed for a daily blog (which is what I want it to be).

I've got Adjusted Performance Percentages done for the Big 10 and SEC, and will begin posting them when I'm done with the BCS conferences. This offseason, I'll cover the mid-majors, too.

So, sit back, put your seatbelts on, because even though it's January 31st, it's always college football season.

Rashard Mendenhall Needs More Carries

Rashard Mendenhall is the most underrated player in the Big 10, maybe even the entire nation. He's rushed for 839 yards on 129 carries through 7 games, but gets no Heisman hype, no future NFL star hype, nothing. A mention here or there as a good player, but nothing more. Why? Because Mike Hart? The Mike Hart who averages over 1 yard less per carry. Mendenhall averages the 7th highest per game rushing total amongst the BCS conference level teams. However, it's more because he's hamstrung by a coach who doesn't give him enough carries. Mendenhall averages a gaudy 6.5 ypc, which ranks better than the 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him: Hart, McFadden, Rice, Forsett, and Choice. Javon Ringer of Michigan State averages 7.1 ypc. Mike Hart has 1,078 yards on 200 carries. Give Mendenhall 200 carries to this point, and he has 1,300 yards.

Mendenhall also leads 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him in receiving yards with 200, behind only Ringer (again). Maybe I should do another article on Ringer, and he and Mendenhall are clearly the best running backs in the Big 10. Sure, Mike Hart can carry the ball 40 yards a game, but is that truly an asset? I think I'd rather have a Mendenhall who can get over 120 yards on 20 carries, combined with a fresh set of legs of a back-up, ala Felix Jones in Arkansas. The 1 running back approach is rare, mostly due to workload problems. For every game Mike Hart rushed 30+ times, it's another game he's taking away from his possible NFL career.

Mendenhall has been hit with the typical "non-preseason hype" bug, which happens to teams and players every year. For instance, Erik Ainge is the #1 statistical QB in the SEC, but he rarely gets pub. Mendenhall is in the same boat. Because pundits (most of them) didn't tag him as a star in July and August, he gets overlooked. However, if someone had a gun to my head, forcing me to choose a running back in the Big 10 to start for my squad, Rashard Mendenhall is the guy.

Below, I have put together a table that shows Mendenhall's ypc versus the 6 D-1A opponents he's faced, and compares his ypc to the average allowed by those defenses in their other games. I think it speaks for itself, and ends this piece very well.

Date	Opponent	Opp. YPCa	Rashard YPC	Change
9/1	Missouri	4.1	3.1	-1.0
9/15	Syracuse	4.9	9.4	+4.5
9/22	Indiana	3.7	7.9	+4.2
9/29	Penn State	1.7	4.2	+2.5
10/6	Wisconsin	4.3	8.4	+4.1
10/13	Iowa	3.1	4.5	+1.4
	ALL	3.6	6.6	+3.0

Parity Saturday

I'm back after my own little September bye week. I spent the week recuperating, drinking, celebrating birthdays, saving the world, and watching the hour-long premiere of The Office. However, I did watch something called football on Saturday, and as you might have heard, some shit went down. A lot of shit, actually. So much shit, Nick Saban found time for it.

The weekend of upsets was shocking, intense, and a sign of the future. A future where cars can fly, and a future where Bob Barker is still somehow alive. It is also a future where "parity" in college football will be commonplace. I hate that word parity, though. There will still be programs like Oklahoma, USC, Florida, Ohio State that win 10-11 games a year, win conference titles, and fight for national titles. But, that murky area of teams rated 5-40 is going to be a mess. A beautiful mess if you like good football, but an ugly mess if you like order.

The talent gap between the have's and the have-not's is shrinking, and it's shrinking quickly - at the rate your peep does in cold water. The biggest reason is the limitation on scholarship players allowed for each program. But that's been in place for a long time. I think the biggest reasons are academics and hurt feelings. I guess off the field issues, too. You have a player like Willie Williams at Miami. He has more arrests than Suge Knight, but a building program like Louisville will take a chance on him. Then you have a player like Slick Shelley. He signed with Tennessee as a 4* WR in 2005, and never climbed into the WR rotation. He's now at Tulsa, and will be on the field next year. More players are transferring than ever before, and they're going to mid-major schools with inventive, unique head coaches.

It's not just the mid-majors, either. Bottom rung BCS conference schools are getting better, save Iowa State. Mississippi State beat Auburn pretty good, and Auburn turned around and beat Florida, who had looked very impressive just 2 weeks earlier. Colorado, a 2-10 last year (although not 2-10 worthy statistically) beat 4-0 Oklahoma, who everyone had recognized in the top 4 ultrateams that the SuperDevil had created. Kansas State scored by land, air, and special teams to kill Texas by 20. A Kansas State team that allowed 23 points to a pathetic Auburn offense held Texas to 21. And Illinois got a signature win for Ron Zook by upsetting Penn State.

The madness is everywhere, and it isn't going to stop. After Appalachian State beat Michigan, I looked at my friend and said, "It's starting, in 10 years, this will be like college basketball." And it will be, at least as much as it can be. We won't see a 65-team playoff, or any playoff, for that matter. But we will see mid-majors beat BCS conference teams more often. And not just Toledo-over-Iowa State wins. More like Troy-over-Oklahoma State wins. There are so many great athletes in this country right now, and they want to play football. You can find plenty of 4.45 kids who the huge schools overlook because they don't run a 4.42. You find those kids, put them in your system to get them the ball as early in their career as possible, and you flourish.

The change is happening, and I for one am excited to see it.

Immersion Effect: September 22nd Edition

I took last week off due to some interesting changes in life, but I'm back. I don't think anybody actually follows this week to week, but it's new, so it'll take time. This week's games are okay, but nothing stands out as *the* game to immerse yourself in. However, with LSU already being a subject of this series two weeks ago, it made it easier to pick this weekend's immersion game.






Alabama was a team I pegged back in March as a darkhorse this fall, and Phil Steele made the same assertion. Their win over Arkansas was both dramatic and important. Saban and the Tide needed a victory like that - a game they would have lost last year, but won. They scored 41 points, something they did only once last year - against Louisiana-Monroe. You have to worry a bit about their defense, giving up 38 points and all. But, the Hogs offense, as everyone knows, has the stud running backs and a good offensive line. This week, with a more straight forward offense, I doubt Georgia scores too many on Saban's D, maybe 20. This game is much more important than the Florida State game next week, and Saban knows it. To stay with LSU in the SEC West, he needs to have his team win this game no matter what. How great would it be for these players and fans to see their team beat two SEC teams they usually would lose to? For Georgia, they need to bring the same defensive intensity they did 2 weeks ago in the loss to South Carolina. Alabama's offense is better at almost every position over the Cocks, so Georgia will be tested. I see this game staying close.

Georgia 20, Alabama 28

Drink of the Week
Crimson Tide
You'll need:
1/4 oz Southern Comfort
1/4 oz Sprite
1/4 oz Vodka
1/4 oz Coconut Rum
1/4 oz Raspberry Liqueur
1/4 oz Cranberry Juice
1/4 oz Maui Blue Hawaiian Schnapps

This one could get a little expensive, but a few things: 1.) You should have most of it anyway and 2.) Get the entire party to pitch in - it's the damn IMMERSION EFFECT people! Anyway, combine all that crap, chill over ice, and strain it into an old fashioned glass. Voila!

Recipe of the Week
Southern Grilled Barbecued Ribs
You'll need:
4 pounds baby back pork ribs
2/3 cup water
1/3 cup red wine vinegar
1 cup ketchup
1 cup water
1/2 cup cider vinegar
1/3 cup Worcestershire sauce
1/4 cup prepared mustard
4 tablespoons butter
1/2 cup packed brown sugar
1 teaspoon hot pepper sauce
1/8 teaspoon salt

Preheat oven to 350 degrees F (175 degrees C). Place ribs in two 10x15 inch roasting pans. Pour water and red wine vinegar into a bowl, and stir. Pour diluted vinegar over ribs and cover with foil. Bake in the preheated oven for 45 minutes. Baste the ribs with their juices halfway through cooking.

In a medium saucepan, mix together ketchup, water, vinegar, Worcestershire sauce, mustard, butter, brown sugar, hot pepper sauce, and salt; bring to a boil. Reduce heat to low, cover, and simmer barbeque sauce for 1 hour.

Preheat grill for medium heat.

Lightly oil preheated grill. Transfer ribs from the oven to the grill, discarding cooking liquid. Grill over medium heat for 15 minutes, turning ribs once. Baste ribs generously with barbeque sauce, and grill 8 minutes. Turn ribs, baste again with barbeque sauce, and grill 8 minutes.

Also, if you don't like your sauce TOO tangy or "vinegary," add a glop of honey and another spoonful of brown sugar to the sauce part of the recipe.

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The ribs are going to be amazing, and I hope you can get all the necessary alcohol for the cocktail. If not, google "Crimson Coma" and you'll find a really simple, red cocktail.

Why is Anyone Surprised by Notre Dame?

One of the biggest mainstream media storylines is Notre Dame sitting at 0-3, without scoring an offensive touchdown. From Rece Davis, to Sportscenter, to fanboys on forums, people are talking about Notre Dame before anything else in college football. And it's confusing me. On forums across the country, there is an underlying argument about Charlie Weis in comparison to Ty Willingham. People wonder why Weis isn't feeling pressure, and again, it's confusing me.

As the title asks, why is anyone surprised at Notre Dame's struggles? We all knew the losses they had coming into this season. It's impossible to expect that team to be any better than 1-2. Penn State and Michigan, in the preseason, were in the top 20. Georgia Tech, too. So why would anyone reasonably expect better than 1-2? You shouldn't have. 0-3 is very understandable for a young team.

Remember, this team lost a 1st round draft pick and all-time leading passer in Brady Quinn. They lost their top 2 wide receivers who combined for 1,924 yards and 27 touchdowns! They also lost the most underrated player on the entire team - Darius Walker. He ran for over 3,000 yards in his 3 seasons, and in his senior year, he had 1,267 yards at 5 yards a pop, plus he caught 56 passes! All in all, the offense lost their top 4 playmakers to the NFL and MLB.

Defensively, the losses were heavy, too. They had a 2nd round draft pick in DE Victor Abiamiri gone, along with 5th round pick DT Derek Landri, and starter Chris Frome graduated. Landri and Abiamiri combined for 17.5 sacks, or 56.5% of the sacks for the entire defense. Losses were rough in the secondary, as well. FS Chinedum Ndukwe was 2nd on the team in tackles, and in my opinion, a more dynamic player than Tom Zbikowski. CB Mike Richardson was a fulltime starter and was drafted by the Patriots.

All in all, of the 5 returning starters on defense, only Maurice Crum and Zbikowsi are dynamic. Trevor Laws at DE can be one, too. Offensively, TE John Carlson is about it. C John Sullivan returned from an already mediocre line that 3 lost starters.

Now, keep in mind of the stats. The offense only returned 74 starts, with 50 coming from Carlson and Sullivan. The defense only returned 125 starts, 35 from Zbikowski.

So, again, why is anyone surprised?

Now, the Weis/Willingham debate. Some people wonder why Weis's seat isn't a bit warm, because you know, Ty only got 3 years. It comes down to 2 numbers: 15 and 19. The former is the number of wins Ty had in 2003 and 2004, with the latter being the number of wins Weis had in 2005 and 2006. Period. Willingham had a 10-3 season followed by a 5-7 season. Weis? 9-3 and 10-3.

While I don't need to go on, I will. In Willingham's 10 win season, ND outscored opponents by an average of 5.4 ppg, and in 2003, they were outscored by an average of 6 ppg. In Weis's 2005, they outscored the enemy by an average of 12.2 ppg, and in 2006, 7.2 ppg.

Starting to make sense? Good. Also, keep in mind Notre Dame is starting 7 freshmen and sophomores on offense. They put together the #8 Rivals recruiting class this past February, and the same rank in 2006. As of right now, for 2008, they are #1. Willingham had #12 in 2003, but #32 in 2004. So, Weis is taking these wins and making the future brighter. But he needs time, and he's earned it. It's unfair to expect a young team to keep pace with a team that had the best 2 year win total at ND since 1992-1993!

So, I ask, why are you surprised?

Money Making Monday: Week 4

So far, I'm making money, but it's a slow grind. There will certainly be a week where I make a big splash. Still, I'm up so far.

YTD: 19-16 +1.4u

Kentucky +7 @ Arkansas

Kentucky will be able to throw all over the Razorbacks, and the Hogs will run all over the Cats. The O/U is out yet, but when it is, I'm hitting the over. Arkansas's defense isn't any better than Louisville's, and while their offense as a whole isn't as good as the Cards', their run game is out of this world. I think Kentucky with a senior QB can go into Fayetteville and not get rattled. A touchdown is a big gap when I think the visiting Wildcats could win outright.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Virginia

Tashard Choice might be out for this game, but I still love the number. Virginia is a wretched team with a wretched offense. They only scored 22 on a bad North Carolina defense, and this Ramblin Wreck defense is for real. Honestly, if Georgia Tech only scores 14 points, they should cover. GT allowed over 400 yards passing to Boston College, but BC has one of the best QBs in the country with a dynamic offense. BC still only scored 24. I like the under in this game, whenever it comes out.

Connecticut @ Pittsburgh -7

This has moved to 8.5, so I feel good about the bet. Pitt's defense has looked really good so far, which is something they didn't have last season. Connecticut barely beat Temple, and we saw with Navy that if you struggle with Temple, you end up being pretty average. UConn loves to run the ball, and Pitt held a very good running Spartan team to 2.8 yards per carry. Hell, UConn ran for only 3.2 ypc against Temple. Blowout alert.

San Jose State +1 @ Utah State

This has gone to +3.5, so I'm not feeling too confident. I guess I'm expecting SJSU to play like they did last season. Utah State is awful, but not as awful as I anticipated. Still, this is essentially a pick at the number I got, and I think SJSU is good enough to win 6/10 times. Isn't it weird to have a write up on a game like this?

Purdue -11.5 @ Minnesota

This moved to -14 within minutes, so I feel damn good about my number. Minnesota is absolutely awful defensively, and Purdue will put up 45+, maybe even 60. Whatever the O/U is, I'll be inclined to get the over. The Gophers are awful - gave up 42 to FAU! Jesus, they have given up OVER 30 points to every team they played - FAU, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green. Two MAC teams and a Sun Belt team. Ouch.

Arizona @ California -17

Revenge game for the Bears, and we saw what they did in the revenge game with Tennessee. Arizona was JUST beaten by New Mexico 29-27 on Saturday. Cal's offense, obviously, is on another level or 8 than UNM. Arizona's offense is still bad, but now inconsistently bad. Cal's defense is definitely a question, but I don't see them, with all the incentive to beat the hell out of Arizona, letting up. Arizona won on a fluke last year, and cost Cal the Pac 10 title. Cal rolls, I think.

Duke @ Navy -10

I've been bitten betting on Navy so far, but this one seems like a good bet. Duke was completely demolished by UConn on September 1st, and UConn is the only team that runs close to as much as Navy. Navy's offense is a lot better than UConn's, so I ecpect Navy to rack up the rushing yards and keep the already awful Duke offense on the sideline. Yes, Duke won a game, but 10 points? C'mon!

Check link at left as usual for updated slate.

Money Making Monday - Week 3

Last week, I went 8-7, but it looks a lot better after the early games were 1-3.
Year to Date: 12-10 +1unit

TCU (-8) @ Air Force

TCU played Texas a lot closer than that final score indicated. It was 10-10 going into the 4th quarter! Air Force did beat Utah, but I think Utah is nowhere near as good as I anticipated. Also, go look at the last 2 games from these two teams. TCU has owned the Falcons. I hate road favorites, but I like this play. TCU's D will stifle that option.

Texas (-20) @ Central Florida

UCF alrighty bit me once this season when the upset NC State in Week 1. Still, this number seems like Vegas responding to the average fans overreacting to poor Texas play in the first 2 weeks. I think the Longhorns got some much needed confidence in the 4th quarter last week, and will beat a very below average Knights team. I only need a 3 touchdown win.

Ball State @ Navy (-5')

Really? Another line that seems too good to be true. Which means I'll get it wrong. Navy lost by 17 to Rutgers on national TV, but Ball State isn't Rutgers. Ball State is probably one of the 6 best teams in the MAC this year, MAYBE, but Navy beats up the stinkies pretty well. And Ball State is a stinky. Run run run all over them.

Ohio State (-4) @ Washington

Beautiful. Ohio State struggles with Akron, Washington beats Boise State, and we have this line. 4? If you combined the best players of Boise State and Syracuse, you wouldn't even touch the speed that Ohio State has. Washington beat an awful awful Syracuse team, and then beat a Boise State team that isn't the 2006 version. This Boise team is a 9-3 team, I think. This is too little of a line. I've been wrong on Washington for 2 weeks in a row, so take that for what it's worth.

Check the link on the left side for updates throughout the week.